Deutsche Bank: The Chinese Renminbi Will Be The World's Next Major Reserve Currency
According to a leading analyst the renminbi is expected to become a major reserve currency in the next decade, a move that could see the greenback's share of global reserve currencies fall from about 60% now, to 50% by 2020.
Cloete notes that Berkeley economist Barry Eichengreen has said that the renminbi could account for 15% of global currency reserve holdings within ten years.
"Demand for RMB is bound to accelerate, given China's commitment to liberalize its capital and current account by the end of 2015.
Hardly a month goes by without the People's Bank of China further loosening the restrictions on onshore RMB trade settlements for foreign investors and customers. For instance, since August 2011 foreign businesses have been able to settle contracts in RMB in any province in China, a relaxation of the rules that would have been unimaginable even two years ago."
Chinese renminbi fast becoming the leading reserve currency -Renminbi bloc
According to Subramanian and Kessler, respectively a senior fellow and a research analyst of the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), the currencies of seven out of ten economies in the region are tracking the renminbi more closely than tracking the U.S. dollar. This seems evident, as China's manufacturing trade with East Asia has risen from a scanty 2% in 1991 to 22%. There are many reasons supporting the development of an RMB bloc. The renminbi's reserve currency posture has risen from 35th globally for transaction volumes in 2010 to 14th byAugust. The economies of Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand are already more tied to renminbi than dollars, signaling a growing trend in the region that favors the Chinese currency for cross-border trade.
A current white-paper by the SWIFT indicates that renminbi-denominated trade accounted for 10% of China's total foreign trade in July from close to zero just two years ago. 2012 is a milestone year for the RMB: it had a market share of 0.53 percent in August and has overtaken the Danish krone to become the 14th-highest global payment currency, SWIFT said. The Royal Bank of Scotland and HSBC are two banks quite bullish on the RMB. RBS predicts the RMB to become fully convertible by 2015. HSBC is a member of the 2012 London RMB initiative, set up by the City of London and has a US road show presentation to entice investors to pool funds into RMB bonds. HSBC also estimates the RMB to be fully convertible by the end of the decade.