Gold- time for a multi month huge rise as per past 8 year behaviour

The most commonly invested Gold ETF the SPDR gold trust price movement is used or analysis. It  follows the gold price in dollars. It is comparable to Gold price by a factor of 1/10. That is if Gold is at $1200, SPDR gold ETF unit is at $120.

SPDR Gold ETF 10 year Chart :;range=

Gold Historic chart :

Price level at 20 Day exponential moving average are taken for the sake of adjusting the short fluctuations.

In the past 8 years, since 2008, we can see 2 prominent bull runs in Gold price.

 One bull run form a low of October 2006 (Price $58.5) to May 2008(Price $95) - a rise of $36.5. Then a fall of $21 to Nov 2008(Price$78).

Another bull run from a low of Nov 2008(Price $74) to September 2011(Price $176) - a rise of $102 then a fall to recent  levels the lowest being of December 2013 (Price $118) - a fall of 58 points.

Thus the first bull run had a fall of 42.5%, The current fall from a high of September 2011 to December 2013 is 43%. This shows a high probability of reversal from this level. Chart given below. Click on image to enlarge.