Skip to main content

Are Russia and China enough for each other?

As Russia and China continue to forge trade pacts, including the huge $456 billion gas deal with Russian state-owned energy giant Gazprom signed in May, many Westerners are wondering whether this cozy relationship between the two nations is anything to be concerned about.
"Right now China's biggest goal is to deflate American dominance, and what better way than to partner with Russia?" said David Silverstein, a global business consultant whose clients include Siemens, Philips and Credit Suisse. "The biggest risk is to the U.S. dollar."
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping toast during a signing ceremony on May 21, 2014, in Shanghai.
Sasha Mordovets | Getty Images
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping toast during a signing ceremony on May 21, 2014, in Shanghai.
The fact that the 30-year Gazprom deal was transacted in a currency swap denominated in yuan—the first time an energy deal circumvented the dollar—is a red flag, according to Silverstein. "If the dollar loses its dominance in international commerce, its value will plummet. That would create a tipping point for the U.S. economy overnight."
He noted that China, in its quest for resources to fuel its large economy, has engineered other yuan currency swaps. Among them: a $30 billion swap with Brazil in March to bolster BRICs countries and an $11 billion swap with Argentina announced last month to help the Latin nation bolster its foreign reserves.

Putin's pivot to the east

"Geopolitical forces are catalyzing the growing ties between Russia and China," said Steve Orlins, president of the National Committee on U.S.-China relations. Plunging oil prices and economic sanctions imposed on Russia by Western countries, in the light of the conflict in Ukraine, have slowed down its economic growth. At the same time, foreign investors have pulled around $96 billion out of Russia this year, the Institute of International Finance has reported. The IMF said the Russian economy is in recession and forecasts GDP growth to just 0.2 percent for 2014.
In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin has turned to his rival to the east, granting China access to its raw materials and advanced weapons. With the ruble near a record low—it hit 40.885 on Tuesday—and foreign investment dwindling, Chinese cash can fill the void.
According to Russia's Bureau of Statistics, trade between Russia and China amounted to more than $59 billion so far this year in sectors ranging from energy to finance to technology. Right now the Russia-China relationship is a marriage of convenience. Russia cannot rely on the West as its primary market for energy, and East Asia presents a perfect opportunity for Russia to fill its energy exports, explained senior Eurasia analyst at Stratfor, Lauren Goodrich.
A delegation led by Premier Li Keqiang signed a package of deals on Oct. 13 in Moscow. Among them was an agreement to swap $25 billion in Chinese yuan for Russian rubles over three years, and cooperation on satellite navigation systems and high-speed rail. They also plan to build the first rail bridge over their common border and an ice-free port in Russia's Far East.
The ties are also spilling over to arms sales. Reuters has reported that it is likely Russia will sign contracts for the delivery of the S-400 missile systems and Su-35 fighter jets to China next year. It is also possible that Russia may supply China with its newest submarine, the Amur 1650.

China-Russia deal flow

Deal
Date
Value (million USD)
What is it?
CNOOC Yamal
LNG
Jul-141,600a large contract for engineering work on the Novatek-led Yamal LNG project in Russia.
China Russia Gas DealMay-14400,000Twenty-seven commercial contracts between Russia and China for the total worth about 15 billion U.S. dollars have been signed in the format of the Russian-Chinese trade and investment forum
CNPC Yamal StakeSep-13N/AChina National Petroleum Corp. bought a 20 percent stake in OAO Novatek’s $20 billion Yamal liquefied natural gas project
Rosneft China OilSep-13270,000Russia's Rosneft (ROSN.MM) agreed a $270 billion deal to double oil supplies to China on Friday, as the Kremlin energy champion shifts its focus to Asia from saturated and crisis-hit European markets. The deal, one of the biggest ever in the history of the global oil industry, will bring Rosneft $60-70 billion in upfront pre-payment from China, the holders of the world's largest foreign exchange reserves.
China Loans to Russian BanksJun-131,900Russia State Corporation Bank for Development and Foreign Economic Affairs signed three loan agreements with its Chinese partners during the 18th regular meeting of Chinese and Russia prime ministers, involving USD 1.9 billion.
China investment in Russia coalOct-132,000Under the strategic cooperation framework agreed upon by the three parties, China Development Bank will provide funding of up to US$ 2 billion to En+ Group and Shenhua Group to develop coal resources and the related infrastructure in Eastern Siberia and the Far East region of Russia.
CDB and SberbankMar-132,000China Development Bank Corp. and OAO Sberbank of Russia have entered into an approximately US$2 billion agreement aimed at enhancing financial cooperation between China and Russia
27 Commercial AgreementsDec-1215,000Twenty-seven commercial contracts between Russia and China for the total worth about 15 billion U.S. dollars have been signed in the format of the Russian-Chinese trade and investment forum
China Russia Investment FundOct-111,000China's sovereign-wealth fund agreed to invest $1 billion in a Kremlin-backed investment vehicle during a visit by Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. China Investment Corp.'s agreement marks the first commitment by an investor to the Russian Direct Investment Fund, a private-equity vehicle set up in June by Mr. Putin and President Dmitry Medvedev as a way to spur foreign investment in Russia
Ref http://www.cnbc.com/id/102106704

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Communist party launches 'China Operating System' to oust iOS and Android

hina officials have launched a national operating system in an attempt to take back control of the country’s computer market from American companies such as Google and Apple. The software has been in development for more than a year, but has been released at a crucial time with revelations about US-led surveillance sparking fears over the integrity of American-designed software. Known simply as the China Operating System, or COS, the software can run on PCs, tablets and smartphones and has been based on the open-source Linux operating system. Chinese media say that the OS has been created “entirely independently” in order to provide better localization for a range of features – from Chinese-language keyboards, to integration with the country’s banks. At the launch of the event, one of the developers involved with the project reportedly criticized Western software , saying that Apple’s iOS was too closed, that Google’s Android OS suffered from fragmentation (ie, too many versi

Best IELTS and English language training institutions in Hyderabad

IELTS stands for International English Language Testing System. As the name implies it is basically an English test for testing the proficiency of the language in an individual.  Training for IELTS can be taken to pass the IELTS exam or to develop good english language skills. I am giving the training institute addresses for Hyderabad. The test system is jointly managed by the British Council,IDP education ltd and University of Cambridge ESOL Examinations and more than 1 million candidates are taking the exam all over the world. The test has two versions : 1. Academic 2. General training Academic  version is for people who plan to continue their higher education by enrolling in universities in countries like US,UK,Australia,Canada,New Zealand etc.The academic institutions in these countries consider the IELTS score as a criteria for the admission process. General training is mostly for immigration purposes in countries like Australia,New Zealand,Canada etc. It may also be u

How to avoid injurious sitting posture at work? Take care of Ergonomics

The impact of poor consideration of these, as well as other, ergonomic elements can be very hazardous to our  well-being. Some of the effects include increase chances of suffering from carpel tunnel syndrome, decreased eye sight, cramps in our joints, strain from overworking certain muscles and joints,  and decreased blood-flow circulation. Work productivity also decreases when we are in environments that are not designed for proper ergonomics. One other important thing to consider is the lighting levels in the space. I actually did not even think of this as an ergonomic design issue, but it truly is.  Our eye muscles are the most used muscles in our entire body.  We use our eyes in every situation throughout our entire day.  Poor considerations for lighting causes very negative short and long-term effects.  It is recommended that we use mixed levels of lighting in our environments. This allows for multiple options for each user depending on his or her preferences and physical nee