Skip to main content

Which investments are safe in times of a threat of recession:Stock,Commodities,Bonds,Currencies roundup

Note: For all the links to charts on the bloomberg.com website, use the time perios '5 years' which can be selected in the 'Time frame' option above the chart.

As can be seen from the charts of some of the major commodities- Gold, Crude, Natural Gas, Copper, Corn, we can see that Gold is performing far better as compared to others since the past 1 year. Stocks are weak all over the major markets. Hence keeping a good part of your assets as Gold and in US dollars is important for the next 1 to 2 years.

Commodities: may have been in downtrend since more than 2 yeras, and may remain in weak phase for 6 months to 1 year:

Chart comparing '

Rogers International Commodity Index' and 'Gold'.

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/RICIGLTR:IND

Click on the chart  images to enlarge



About 

Rogers International Commodity Index http://www.rogersrawmaterials.com/

---

Among currencies, USD is in uptrend since 10 years. The index to judge the value of USD is the Dollar index. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DXY:CUR

The EUR-USD exchange rate closely mimics it.




Ref: http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=EUR&view=10Y
--------

Stocks: May remain in weak phase for 6 to 12 months:

An overall direction of the European markets can be seen from the chart of 

EURO STOXX 50 which shows a bearish head and shoulder pattern in the past one and a half years from June 2014 to Jan 2016.


The EURO STOXX 50 is a stock index of Eurozone stocks, its goal is "to provide a blue-chip representation of Supersector leaders in the Eurozone"

Same bearish pattern is seen in  S&P 500 Index

Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong stock market) can not be considered out of bearish grip till it sustains above 22000. At the moment, it is around 19300.

Chinese stock market can not be considered as having gained strength till it sustains above 3000 mark for 3 to 6 months.

Bond market: 
German Bonds in bear trend since 3 years.

Bloomberg EUR Investment Grade European Corporate Bond Index in weak trend since 10 months.


US gov bonds in weak trend.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USGG10YR:IND


German gov bonds in weak trend. See this post for long term trend of bonds:  
http://drkhalid.blogspot.in/2016/01/german-bond-yields-went-to-negative.html

Also read:
The beginning of a bear market is here, says technical analyst Martin Pring
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-beginning-of-a-bear-market-is-here-says-technical-analyst-martin-pring-2016-01-29?mod=MW_story_recommended_default&Link=obnetwork

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Communist party launches 'China Operating System' to oust iOS and Android

hina officials have launched a national operating system in an attempt to take back control of the country’s computer market from American companies such as Google and Apple. The software has been in development for more than a year, but has been released at a crucial time with revelations about US-led surveillance sparking fears over the integrity of American-designed software. Known simply as the China Operating System, or COS, the software can run on PCs, tablets and smartphones and has been based on the open-source Linux operating system. Chinese media say that the OS has been created “entirely independently” in order to provide better localization for a range of features – from Chinese-language keyboards, to integration with the country’s banks. At the launch of the event, one of the developers involved with the project reportedly criticized Western software , saying that Apple’s iOS was too closed, that Google’s Android OS suffered from fragmentation (ie, too many versi
Post a Comment
Read more

Best IELTS and English language training institutions in Hyderabad

IELTS stands for International English Language Testing System. As the name implies it is basically an English test for testing the proficiency of the language in an individual.  Training for IELTS can be taken to pass the IELTS exam or to develop good english language skills. I am giving the training institute addresses for Hyderabad. The test system is jointly managed by the British Council,IDP education ltd and University of Cambridge ESOL Examinations and more than 1 million candidates are taking the exam all over the world. The test has two versions : 1. Academic 2. General training Academic  version is for people who plan to continue their higher education by enrolling in universities in countries like US,UK,Australia,Canada,New Zealand etc.The academic institutions in these countries consider the IELTS score as a criteria for the admission process. General training is mostly for immigration purposes in countries like Australia,New Zealand,Canada etc. It may also be u
9 comments
Read more

How to avoid injurious sitting posture at work? Take care of Ergonomics

The impact of poor consideration of these, as well as other, ergonomic elements can be very hazardous to our  well-being. Some of the effects include increase chances of suffering from carpel tunnel syndrome, decreased eye sight, cramps in our joints, strain from overworking certain muscles and joints,  and decreased blood-flow circulation. Work productivity also decreases when we are in environments that are not designed for proper ergonomics. One other important thing to consider is the lighting levels in the space. I actually did not even think of this as an ergonomic design issue, but it truly is.  Our eye muscles are the most used muscles in our entire body.  We use our eyes in every situation throughout our entire day.  Poor considerations for lighting causes very negative short and long-term effects.  It is recommended that we use mixed levels of lighting in our environments. This allows for multiple options for each user depending on his or her preferences and physical nee
Post a Comment
Read more