Which investments are safe in times of a threat of recession:Stock,Commodities,Bonds,Currencies roundup

Note: For all the links to charts on the bloomberg.com website, use the time perios '5 years' which can be selected in the 'Time frame' option above the chart.

As can be seen from the charts of some of the major commodities- Gold, Crude, Natural Gas, Copper, Corn, we can see that Gold is performing far better as compared to others since the past 1 year. Stocks are weak all over the major markets. Hence keeping a good part of your assets as Gold and in US dollars is important for the next 1 to 2 years.

Commodities: may have been in downtrend since more than 2 yeras, and may remain in weak phase for 6 months to 1 year:

Chart comparing '

Rogers International Commodity Index' and 'Gold'.


Click on the chart  images to enlarge


Rogers International Commodity Index http://www.rogersrawmaterials.com/


Among currencies, USD is in uptrend since 10 years. The index to judge the value of USD is the Dollar index. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DXY:CUR

The EUR-USD exchange rate closely mimics it.

Ref: http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=EUR&view=10Y

Stocks: May remain in weak phase for 6 to 12 months:

An overall direction of the European markets can be seen from the chart of 

EURO STOXX 50 which shows a bearish head and shoulder pattern in the past one and a half years from June 2014 to Jan 2016.

The EURO STOXX 50 is a stock index of Eurozone stocks, its goal is "to provide a blue-chip representation of Supersector leaders in the Eurozone"

Same bearish pattern is seen in  S&P 500 Index

Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong stock market) can not be considered out of bearish grip till it sustains above 22000. At the moment, it is around 19300.

Chinese stock market can not be considered as having gained strength till it sustains above 3000 mark for 3 to 6 months.

Bond market: 
German Bonds in bear trend since 3 years.

Bloomberg EUR Investment Grade European Corporate Bond Index in weak trend since 10 months.

US gov bonds in weak trend.

German gov bonds in weak trend. See this post for long term trend of bonds:  

Also read:
The beginning of a bear market is here, says technical analyst Martin Pring