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Can we estimate the potential Coronavirus spread threat in India and in other countries ?


26 March 2020 . (25 March PDT) . An attempt to understand the extent of population which can get affected if strict measures are not taken !! 

Image: A govt worker sanitizes public place in S Korea.


We will take examples of countries who are being appreciated to control Covid 19 well.

At the time of writing this article, there were 327,999 active cases in the world and 134649 closed cases. Closed cases means they either recovered or died. 113,802 (84%) recovered and 20,877 (16%) died. 

 In China, the recovered people are 73650 while the active cases are 4287 . Total cases till date = 9137. Also, in South Korea, affected no. is 175 cases per millon. Cases per million = 56.

 In South Korea the recovered people are 70%(3730) of the active (5281). Total cases till date = 9137. Also, in South Korea, cases per million = 178 .

 In Germany where they have done the largest number of tests to  screen the population, coronavirus, total cases till date = 56 per milllion. 3547 have recovered while 33570 are affected. Cases per million = 445.

If we take the lowest of all these rates, we can estimate how many people can get affected in the India which has a population of 1350 million people if precautions are not taken. 

Thus estimate about any country can be obtained by this method. Also other figures can be estimated.

Why soap, sanitizer and warm water work against Covid-19 and other viruses:
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/24/health/soap-warm-water-hand-sanitizer-coronavirus-wellness-scn/index.html

Take precautions - advice as per WHO:
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public 

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19): Prevention and risks - govt of Canada
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/prevention-risks.html


Ref news:

Can the World Copy South Korea’s Coronavirus Plan?

True Reason Why Germany Has Lowest Coronavirus Deaths vs. Italy, France, USA

Coronavirus: Financial Times praises Belgium’s approach

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