Should we be scared of Coronavirus ? What do the numbers say about the spread in spite of all government actions ?
I could not sleep after reading this news story. You may ignore it, but the depth of the problem should be understood so that proper steps taken to stop things from going out of control.
This is an excerpt from news story dated Saturday 14 March 2020. Reference at the end.
This is an excerpt from news story dated Saturday 14 March 2020. Reference at the end.
On January 29, when Italy detected and isolated its first coronavirus cases – two Chinese tourists – authorities were sure they had put together the safest protection system in Europe.
The following day, Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte immediately declared a state of emergency for six months, and made Italy the first country to block flights from China. "We can reassure all the citizens, the situation is under control," he said. "We expected cases in Italy too."
But by March 11, the country had the second-highest number of infections outside China. In a press conference where the number of journalists was limited to prevent the spread of the virus, the head of the Italian Civil Protection Angelo Borrelli laid out the latest figures. Barely twenty days after the first locally transmitted case, authorities had confirmed 12,462 cases, 827 people had died and 1,028 were in intensive care units.
Stefano Rusconi, an associate professor of Infectious Diseases at DIBIC Luigi Sacco, University of Milan, says that other countries did not do a better job of spotting undetected cases. "On the contrary, Italy, or rather, Lombardy, carried out a very considerable number of coronavirus tests that allowed it to quickly discover many more cases of infected people."
He says it looks unlikely that Italy could have done anything to completely prevent the virus from entering. "The only thing we could have done is introducing the current lockdown on 30 January, a decision that was impossible and unthinkable at the time," he says.
Even stopping flights from China might have had no influence at all, he says – new, provisional research suggests that the coronavirus reached Italy from Germany.
Roberto Burioni, a virologist at the San Raffaele University Hospital in Milan and a prominent medicine communicator, has explained the importance of lockdowns by arguing that the coronavirus crisis is not a sudden event like "a meteor arriving on our head". Rather, he said, it's like "being in a car that is going against a wall, just press the brake and we are safe. But the pedal we must press all together, 60 million Italians."
In early March, hospitals in Lombardy began to be overwhelmed. Doctors on the frontline began saying they had been hit by a "tsunami" of patients.
On February 27, Italy took the decision to only test people with symptoms, meaning that the official data only detects a fraction of the infected. "[Since then] we are only observing the tip of the iceberg," says Cartabellotta. "In other words, if we could know all the positive cases, the lethality rate would decrease."
This means the spread is likely to be much larger than it appears, and that Italy does not currently have 15,113 cases – but probably many thousands more. The same could be happening in other European countries, which seem to be following Italy's curve of contagions. "They will have a similar number of cases," Cartabellotta says. "We think there might be an explosion within a week."
New story Ref:
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/coronavirus-italy
The following day, Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte immediately declared a state of emergency for six months, and made Italy the first country to block flights from China. "We can reassure all the citizens, the situation is under control," he said. "We expected cases in Italy too."
But by March 11, the country had the second-highest number of infections outside China. In a press conference where the number of journalists was limited to prevent the spread of the virus, the head of the Italian Civil Protection Angelo Borrelli laid out the latest figures. Barely twenty days after the first locally transmitted case, authorities had confirmed 12,462 cases, 827 people had died and 1,028 were in intensive care units.
Stefano Rusconi, an associate professor of Infectious Diseases at DIBIC Luigi Sacco, University of Milan, says that other countries did not do a better job of spotting undetected cases. "On the contrary, Italy, or rather, Lombardy, carried out a very considerable number of coronavirus tests that allowed it to quickly discover many more cases of infected people."
He says it looks unlikely that Italy could have done anything to completely prevent the virus from entering. "The only thing we could have done is introducing the current lockdown on 30 January, a decision that was impossible and unthinkable at the time," he says.
Even stopping flights from China might have had no influence at all, he says – new, provisional research suggests that the coronavirus reached Italy from Germany.
Roberto Burioni, a virologist at the San Raffaele University Hospital in Milan and a prominent medicine communicator, has explained the importance of lockdowns by arguing that the coronavirus crisis is not a sudden event like "a meteor arriving on our head". Rather, he said, it's like "being in a car that is going against a wall, just press the brake and we are safe. But the pedal we must press all together, 60 million Italians."
In early March, hospitals in Lombardy began to be overwhelmed. Doctors on the frontline began saying they had been hit by a "tsunami" of patients.
On February 27, Italy took the decision to only test people with symptoms, meaning that the official data only detects a fraction of the infected. "[Since then] we are only observing the tip of the iceberg," says Cartabellotta. "In other words, if we could know all the positive cases, the lethality rate would decrease."
This means the spread is likely to be much larger than it appears, and that Italy does not currently have 15,113 cases – but probably many thousands more. The same could be happening in other European countries, which seem to be following Italy's curve of contagions. "They will have a similar number of cases," Cartabellotta says. "We think there might be an explosion within a week."
New story Ref:
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/coronavirus-italy
Protective measures against the new coronavirus
(1) Wash your hands frequently and thoroughly clean your hands with an alcohol-based hand rub or wash them with soap and water.
(2) Maintain social distancing
Maintain at least 1 metre (3 feet) distance between yourself and anyone who is coughing or sneezing.
Why? - When someone coughs or sneezes they spray small liquid droplets from their nose or mouth.
(3) Avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth.
Why? - Hands touch many surfaces and can pick up viruses. Once contaminated, hands can transfer the virus to your eyes, nose or mouth.
(4) In office and places of worship: buttons, door knobs, handles, and other places that are touched by lots of people are hubs where infection resides.
Healthy ways to strengthen your immune system which are important to prevent infection:
# Don't smoke.
# Eat a diet high in fruits and vegetables. Use lemon juice.
# Exercise regularly. At least do walking for an hour.
# Get adequate sleep.
# Cook meat thoroughly.
# Don't eat junk food like pizza, chips, preserved food items.
Foods to make immune system strong:
(1) Turmeric
(2) Also use lemon juice with water in the morning to boost body immunity. One lemon enough for three people.
(3) Ginger. Add it to tea after boiling stage is over and you stop the flame.
By Dr M Khalid Munir, Diabetes specialist, Hyderabad
Contact us at medlifeasia@gmail.com
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