'Internet of things', "consumer 3D printing", "Autonomous vehicles" most over-hyped technologies: Gartner
The “internet of things” (IoT) is the most over-hyped technology in development today, according to tech analysts Gartner.
The firm puts the technology, which promises a world in which every electronic device has a sim card and its own presence on the net, at five to 10 years from actual productivity. Right now, it says, the concept is instead it is at the “peak of inflated expectations”.
Gartner highlights a lack of standardisation in the area, as well as the changing nature of the technology itself, as part of the reason why widespread adoption is further than its promotors think.
“Standardisation (data standards, wireless protocols, technologies) is still a challenge to more-rapid adoption of the IoT,” writes Gartner’s Hung LeHong.
“A wide number of consortiums, standards bodies, associations and government/region policies around the globe are tackling the standards issues. Ironically, with so many entities each working on their own interests, we expect the lack of standards to remain a problem over the next three to five years.”
The assessment is part of Gartner’s annual “hype cycle”, which classifies emergent technologies in one of five categories based on how high expectations for them are.
Initially, a new technology enters the public’s awareness with low expectations, which slowly rise as the potential becomes clear. Quantum computing, holographic displays and human augmentation are all at that period of the cycle, although the firm puts all three of them at well over 10 years from general use.
Eventually, expectations hit a peak, where the technology is predicted to solve almost every problem known to humanity. As well as the internet of things, autonomous vehicles, consumer 3D printing and wearable computing are all innovations that Gartner thinks are over-hyped at the moment.
Then comes what Gartner calls the “trough of disillusionment”: the period when the realisation hits on that the technology is never going to perform as well as its proponents hoped. Examples include gamification, augmented reality, and near-field communication.