Skip to main content

Forecast of Crude oil price for next 2-4 years: professional technical analysis

Crude oil broke important levels recently. It is in a strong down trend which is not easy to reverse. Lets have a look at the prices for the past 25 years in the chart. There is good support at $50 (See S1 marked in chart) meaning that it can stop falling at that level. If it breaks $50 level and falls further, it will find very strong support first around 43$ (S2 in chart ) then at $40. The reversal of downtrend into an uptrend will probably take 2 to 4 years as evident from the past behaviour of crude oil prices in 1998-2000 and 2008-2010 trend changes. We can assume a stop in the downtrend when price goes above $70. But before that it has to cross the $60 level (marked R1 in chart) which will not be easy. When the trend will change, crude oil price will cross above 80$ level. Before it crosses $80, it may be assumed to remain in sideways movement meaning that there will not be much appreciation.

Chart courtesy:
http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=CBG15&t=BAR&size=M&v=2&g=1&p=MN&d=X&qb=1&style=technical&template=


Similar view was given here:
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article11875.html

Questions and critical analysis is welcome.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

LIC Buys Double as Prices Dive - 10 Aug 2011

http://licreddy.com/Content/information/insurancenews_details.asp?NewsCode=4872 LIC Buys Double as Prices Dive 10-Aug-2011 Life Insurance Corp of India, the government's institution of choice to stabilise the stock market whenever it gets wobbly, has more than doubled stock purchases in the past three days as the global debt worry-triggered selloff made valuations attractive. LIC, the country's biggest investor with stakes in L&T, Axis Bank and Grasim, will raise its secondary market purchases this fiscal as IPOs dry up with promoters not keen to sell shares at lower valuations. "We have been buying in the past few days,'' said a LIC executive involved in decisionmaking. "With the market correcting and not many public issues coming up, we would be investing more in secondary market," said the person who did not want to be identified. LIC to Invest . 50k Cr More LIC, which had been buying stocks for an average of . 120 crore in the first four...
Post a Comment
Read more

Best IELTS and English language training institutions in Hyderabad

IELTS stands for International English Language Testing System. As the name implies it is basically an English test for testing the proficiency of the language in an individual.  Training for IELTS can be taken to pass the IELTS exam or to develop good english language skills. I am giving the training institute addresses for Hyderabad. The test system is jointly managed by the British Council,IDP education ltd and University of Cambridge ESOL Examinations and more than 1 million candidates are taking the exam all over the world. The test has two versions : 1. Academic 2. General training Academic  version is for people who plan to continue their higher education by enrolling in universities in countries like US,UK,Australia,Canada,New Zealand etc.The academic institutions in these countries consider the IELTS score as a criteria for the admission process. General training is mostly for immigration purposes in countries like Australia,New Zealand,Canada etc. It may ...
9 comments
Read more

How to use home loans most effectively for tax benefits

1) Deduction on interest: If you are paying EMIs for a home loan you took to buy a house, the interest component in the EMI can be claimed as deduction. You must be both an owner and a co-borrower (in the loan) to claim tax benefits. This deduction can be claimed starting the year in which the construction of the house is completed. Suppose the construction of your house was completed on August 30, 2014, you can claim deduction for interest for the entire 12 months in financial year 2014-15. So every year a maximum of Rs. 2 lakh can be claimed for a house that you use for your own residence. If your house is rented, the entire interest for the year can be claimed as deduction. The interest payments for the year shall result in a loss under the head 'income from house property'. This loss can be adjusted against in the same year against other heads of income in your income tax return including salary. Therefore, it reduces your total taxable income and the tax you pay thereon. A...
2 comments
Read more