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Is Ukraine the new Afghanistan? Superpowers making it a battle ground for energy and trade!



Why Are People Protesting?

On November 21, Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych backtracked on
previous promises to sign a trade pact with the European Union after
years of negotiations, and instead decided to strengthen ties with
Russia. The agreement would have established free trade and political
cooperation and put Ukraine on the road to EU membership. Though the
government initially said the agreement was just suspended until a
solution was found, Ukrainians hoping for a move away from decades of
dependency on Russia and toward the freer markets and more open
politics of the EU were furious.

Why Did the President Back out of the Deal?

Yanukovych said the country couldn't afford the blow of trade
sanctions threatened by Russia. (And Russia later sweetened the pot
for Yanukovych--more about that in a second.) Kiev is heavily dependent
on Moscow's gas, which comprises 60 percent of the nation's supply and
has been cut off before.

It's been widely agreed that motivation behind the retreat came
directly from Moscow.

"The reason is well-known: pressure that Russia exerts on Kiev,"
explained NATO's Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen. In August,
as signing the EU deal drew nearer, Russia exerted this threat by
ramping up border checks and duty fees on incoming shipments from
Ukraine.

In addition to pressure from his neighbors, Yanukovych may have been
unnerved by the European Union's demand to free his rival, former
Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, from jail after she was sentenced in
a case thought to have political motivations.

When Did Protests Begin?

Hundreds of thousands of protesters poured into the streets of Kiev a
few days after the decision was announced to demand the president sign
the European deal, making Independence Square the epicenter of
demonstrations. Within 10 days, an estimated 1 million people
assembled. Riot police used stun grenades and batons to violently beat
them back. In the frigid temperatures, demonstrators constructed
barricades, built a massive tent city and occupied government
buildings. After three months of controlling City Hall, protesters
agreed to vacate it earlier this week in exchange for charges against
detained activists being dropped.

What Do They Want?

Kiev's protesters want democratic government reform and an alliance
with the European Union as their country sinks further into deep
financial troubles. Ten years ago, the country's Orange Revolution
overthrew the former authoritarian government, but the country remains
an economic basket case. Ukraine is currently in its third recession
since 2008, and is seeing foreign reserve coffers at their lowest
levels since 2006. It's estimated the country currently has enough in
its central bank for two months of imports, and currency dropped to a
five-year low earlier this month. A wannabe strongman like Yanukovych
hasn't exactly made things better. This week, protesters were
infuriated when the Ukrainian parliament refused to vote on a bill
that would resurrect limits on the president's powers.

How Did the Government Respond?

In the days after initial protests, Yanukovych said he favored "moving
toward the EU," but noted an agreement could harm Russian trade
relations. But this sentiment was apparently short lived. In January,
a slew of new laws smelled of a Soviet-style crackdown: extremism and
foreign agents were banned; libel and unsanctioned protests now carry
heavy sentences; and internet access can be arbitrarily restricted.
Some government officials have resigned, notably Prime Minister Mykola
Azarov, and Yanukovych has extended opposition leaders seats in the
government. But this offering was rejected by activists who are
pushing for new elections and an abolishment of the anti-protest laws.

What's Russia's Role in This?

Vladimir Putin has not acknowledged allegations of pressuring
Yanukovych into ditching the EU, and has chided the European Union for
bullying Ukraine. On Tuesday, Russia called the upsurge in protests
"connivance by Western politicians and European structures."

But experts theorize Russia is hoping to rope former Soviet Bloc
nations back together, and wants Ukraine to join into an alliance with
the Eurasian Customs Union, which currently includes Russia,
Kazakhstan, and Belarus.

In December, Putin and Yanukovych struck a $15 billion loan deal, and
Russia made an initial $3 billion bonds purchase from Ukraine. The
payments were suspended after violence overtook the city, but on
Monday, $2 billion more was paid out, solidifying Russia's cash-based
hold over Ukraine.

What's the Russian-Ukrainian Relationship?

Ukraine proclaimed its modern independence upon the Soviet Union's
dissolve in 1991. Under Soviet control, the country's economy was
brutalized and it has since been slow to recover. Its location--Ukraine
occupies a key political position as the border country between Russia
and the EU--and its large population of 45 million make the country
strategic. And Russia is quick to act on its fear that western
influence could spread east. In 2008, Putin threatened to aim nuclear
missiles at Ukraine if the nation joined NATO. Another reason to keep
an upper hand: Russia also funnels oil to Europe via a pipeline that
runs directly through Ukraine.

Ref: thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/02/19/up-to-speed-what-s-going-on-in-ukraine.html


--
----
regards
M Khalid Munir,
Hyderabad,
India

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